Boxing...great opportunity for the sports bettor

The following is a cut & paste of a post I published at a sports gambling website on the upcoming De La Hoya-Mayweather fight. Since the fight is finally just a week away...here's a reprise:




This one ties up a bit of bankroll for 4 months, but I can't believe the line will stay this friendly. Mayweather-De La Hoya in May...the most likely outcome is Mayweather by decision, and it's getting +126 (Pinny). That's close to a 45% chance...should be more like 65%, and I can't imagine that at fight time you'll be getting as much as even money. What are the alternatives?1) Mayweather by stoppage. In the last 3 years, Mayweather has stopped 3 of his 6 opponents. Those were the badly outmatched Henry Bruseles, Sharmba Mitchell (who has been knocked out in 3 of his last 5 fights), and the once-great Arturo Gatti who had finally seen a war or two too many and has been stopped 4 times. In Mayweather's fights against quality opposition (Zab Judah, DeMarcus Corley, and Carlos Baldomir), Mayweather takes no chances and wins easy decisions. De La Hoya has lost 4 fights, but only one of those went short of the distance, and that was to Bernard Hopkins, a much bigger natural fighter than Mayweather, and one who fights much more aggressively. No reason to think that De La Hoya wouldn't make the final bell.2) De La Hoya wins. More likely than his getting stopped, but still unlikely. De La Hoya's popularity is probably what's keeping the Mayweather-by-decision price high...for now. Mayweather is at the very top of the fight game. He heads just about everyone's pound-for-pound list, and hasn't come close to losing a fight in several years, since he beat top 140-pounder Jose Luis Castillo (for the second time) by "only" 2, 2, and 3 points. In contrast, De La Hoya, who is 4 years older than Mayweather, has lost 4 fights now. Admittedly, they were all to top fighters (Hopkins, Trinidad, and Mosely (twice)). But that's what Mayweather is - THE top fighter in the game today. He is also "just" a boxer, while Oscar is now a businessman, with his "Golden Boy Promotions." Even if Oscar keeps his promise to train harder for this fight than he ever has before (which he probably will), there's no reason to think that he will be the one, at 34 years old, to break Mayweather's unbeaten streak. This ain't Hagler-Leonard; Mayweather's style scores points. Mayweather is faster and better at defense.I think an accurate price for this would be somewhere between-150 and -200. I don't think it will go that low, partly because of De La Hoya's popularity, but I also don't think, as the fight moves to the forefront of the schedule, that you'll be getting +125, either. It probably drops to about -120, which will still be an overlay...but take the +125 while it's there.YTD: 1-0; +250If you want to take a flyer, the draw is +1621 at Pinnacle. Some of De La Hoya's recent fights have been close decisions (close & unanimous, split, and majority), and his popularity may swing a couple of close rounds his way. I expect Mayweather will win too many rounds clearly for this to swing, but at better than 16-1, for a fight between two good fighters that will probably go the distance and in which the lesser fighter is the more popular, it might be worth an action bet.




Current (April 28) postscript: I'd say the odds on a Mayweather decision are more like 75% (not the 65% I originally posted). The odds have dropped (at least at www.bodog.com, one of the last online books that's American-friendly) to even money, but that's still quite an overlay. If a Mayweather decision is a 75% result, then your expected value at even money is 1/2 of all money wagered. (If you're unused to calculating expected value, it's pretty straightforward. On the assumption that Mayweather by decision is a 75% outcome, then if you bet $25 on that result 4 times, you'd win 3. So 3 times, you'd win $25 (total: +$75), and once you'd lose $25. So you'd have $100 wagered ($25 four times), and you'd be up $50 ($75-$25). An expected value of 50 cents back for every dollar wagered is huge...this is a fight you should really bet. My prediction: 116-113, Mayweather. That's 7 rounds to 4, 1 round even, assuming no 10-8 rounds, which is a very good assumption. That also assumes that the judges will be friendly to De La Hoya based on reputation and marketability; look for most ringsiders to have a card more like 117-112 (8 rounds to 3, 1 even).